NL Central Starting Pitching Analysis

Cubs	Cards	Astros	Brewers	Reds	Pirates
Dempster  A-	Carpenter  A-	Oswalt  A+	Gallardo  A-	Harang  B+	Maholm B+
Zambrano  A+	Lohse  B+	Hampton  B	Looper B+	Volquez  B+	Snell  B
Harden  B++	Wainwright  B+	Wandy   B+	Suppan B/A+	Cueto  B+	Duke  B
Lilly  B+	Wellemeyer  B-	Moehler  ?	Parra B	Arroyo B+	Ohlendorf B-
Marshall ?	Piniero C+	Russ Ortiz D-	Bush B-/C+	Bailey  C+	Karstens  C+
Overall     B+	Overall        B	Overall   C+	Overall    B	Overall    B+	Overall   C+

The NL Central should be a hotly contested division all summer. It’ll be great to watch! Let’s get into it:

Predictions: Based on starting pitching, the Cubs take this division again. I think that health will be a factor though (as it always is).

Cubs: The Cubs are largely bringing back the same rotation they finished the season with last year. Dempster is worth the money they’re paying him. They might have gotten him for less if they waited a little longer this off-season, but they’re not ridiculously over paying and the Cubs can afford it. Zambrano will be Zambrano. Lilly is serviceable and will make most of his starts if not all. Harden is probably better than a B+ but I didn’t want to put him in A- territory. This is a solid rotation with a few options in the fifth spot. If they stay healthy, the division is theirs to lose.

Cardinals: If the Cards are in on the playoff hunt this year, it will be by virtue of their starting line-up and not the rotation. They’re very deep in the outfield and might be able to get prospects that will be high level starting pitching if they’re out of it at the deadline. One start in and Carpenter is out again indefinitely. Lohse and Wainwright should hold down the fort. But Wellemeyer and Piniero are going to be a coin flip every start. It could be worse for the Cards, but if they catch a little luck they might play in October.

Astros: Since they made it to the World Series, I haven’t really been impressed with the Astros. They just never seem to put it together for long stretches. Their starting pitching after Oswalt is filled with meh pitchers. No one’s going to blow you away there. Mike Hampton has been healthy so far and pitching pretty well. But he can snap a ligament at any moment (history has taught us that much). And this team had Russ Ortiz start for them last night. Russ friggin’ Ortiz??!?! I’d give them a 15% chance of making the playoffs. Three teams in their division would have to fall down and die for them to make it in and I don’t see it.

Brewers: If Jeff Suppan could make every start against the Mets he would win Cy Young after Cy Young. Suppan OWNS the Mets. That’s why he’s double rated as a B- and an A+. Should the Brewers meet the Mets in the playoffs, they should start Supp three times. Seriously. It would guarantee the series. Gallardo has looked very good so far. Looper will be okay to good. Parra has his days and Bush should win as many as he loses. What the Brewers need right now is for the hitters to wake up and it looks like they might have done that in NY last weekend.

Reds: I like the Reds. I do. I’m probably going to catch hell from some people because I gave Edison Volquez a B+. Volquez looks good to me about half the time. I think he needs to find himself and get consistent to break into the A’s for me. Arroyo will do what he does. Harang is definitely going to bounce back this year. He’s thrown well so far this season. Cueto will get a year better. They’re fifth spot is a little bit of a toss up. I listed Bailey (who’s got to start performing to his potential) but they all have Micah Owings who was a favorite of mine in Arizona last year till he got traded. Micah was composed and consistent and often bailed himself out with his bat. I don’t know that he’ll ever be better than a .500 pitcher, but in this league, that’s not that bad.

Pirates: What can you say about the Pirates? Good young pitching that seems to me like they need a coach. They’re got a lot of talent, but none of them seem to be maturing the way that you’d like. Look at a pitcher like Greinke in KC. Zack Duke could have been that type of pitcher. Tom Gorzelanny could have been that type of pitcher. I think I’ve seen both of those guys enough to say they have the stuff to get there, but they haven’t. I don’t know if it’s the coaching or the fact that they are playing in Pittsburgh that’s keeping these guys down. They could be way more, but they aren’t and it’s sad.