Open Letter to Marlins Lovers (Streak Streak Streak)

To everyone who saw the first 11 games of the season and wanted to hand the Marlins the NL East crown,

Watch them now.

The pitching has cooled and Hanley is hurting. They are a completed different team.

The Mets have been fairly awful so far this season and they are controlling their current series against the Marlins so far.

Baseball is all about who’s hot. If you can get hot and stay hot longer than everyone else, you can take everything. The teams that gut it out and win without being hot, those are the special teams. Those are the teams to watch. Last year, the Rays were that team, this year, so far for my money, it’s the Blue Jays and Red Sox.

NL West Starting Pitching Analysis

Dodgers	Diamondbacks	Giants	Rockies	Padres
Kuroda  B+	Webb   A+	Lincecum  A+	Francis  A-	Peavy  A
Kershaw  A	Haren  A+	Cain  A-	Jimenez  B+	Young  B+
Billingsley  B+	Scherzer  B	Big Unit  B+	Cook  A-	Correia  C+
Wolf  B	Davis  B	Sanchez  B	De La Rosa  ?	Seung Baek B-/?
Vargas?	Garland B	Zito  B	Marquis  C	?
Overall     B+	Overall        B+	Overall   B+	Overall    B	Overall    B-

The NL West is a division I see as easily up for grabs and has been the last couple years. If one of these teams catches fire in August and September, they’ll take the division. That’s what happened last year (Dodgers) and the year before (Rockies).

Predictions: The DBacks have the best rotation and would seem to me like the most likely to win it. BUT, the Dodgers have Manny and a pretty solid rotation too. In the end, I think the DBacks youth will work against them and the Dodgers take the division again. But with all these teams this close, it could go to anyone.

Dodgers: Kershaw needs to step it up for the Dodgers big time this season. Since he has the best stuff, everyone has named him their defacto “Ace”, but he’s still a kid. He needs to grow into his Ace shoes and become the force in the West everyone hopes he will be.  I still remember the first time I saw his curve on YouTube. It made my heart skip a beat. I thought, that must be what it was like to see Koufax. Those are awfully big shoes to fill. Billingsley is growing into his #3 role very well. Kuroda has been solid - although currently he’s hurt. Wolf will give you starts.  I think Pedro would have looked really good in that 5^th spot for them, but they couldn’t make it happen.

DBacks: Without a doubt the best rotation in this division for my money. Webb has struggled and is on the DL, but he should bounce back. Danny Haren is consistently brilliant. Max Scherzer is looking like he’ll be every bit as good as AZ hoped. Doug Davis has quietly moved from #2 to #4 and is still winning games. He’s a solid pitcher. Jon Garland has been hot and cold for the DBacks so far, but he’ll be better than average when the season’s done.

Giants: I know everyone like the Giants rotation because everyone keeps telling me that they like the Giants rotation. Lincecum is a freak. Matt Cain is getting better every start. Randy Johnson has looked positively stellar so far. But in the end, I think this Giants offense is going to be their downfall. I don’t think that they’re pitching is good enough to win games 1-0, 2-1 every night. They need to be able to win games 5-3, 6-5, 7-4 and I don’t think that the offense is good enough to put 5 runs on the board with any consistency.

Rockies: When Jeff Francis returns from the DL, I think Colorado could be a very dangerous team. The offense is still largely intact and they can always score runs. The starting pitching is actually pretty good at the front of the rotation. It’s once you get past Jimenez that I think you’ll start to see teams beating up on the Rockies. If the Rockies take this division, it won’t be on the strength of the starters.

Padres: The Pads have started the season red hot. They have been winning games and they’re looking good. Peavy might stay past the deadline, who knows. Chris Young is pitching well so far. But they Pads have some question marks in that starting rotation.  If I was a manager, I wouldn’t want to count on Walter Silva every fifth day. Or Kevin Correia or Shawn Hill. Shawn Hill was cut from the Nationals for Chrissakes. I know they’re hot now and winning games, but I wouldn’t count on them being at the top past May.

Red Sox enjoy trip to Citi Field

The Red Sox helped the Mets break in Citi Field and enjoyed the new park greatly.  They dropped the first game 4-3 and won the second 9-3.

Carter had a great game on Friday, going 2-4 with an rbi, run and a walk.  He’s had a great spring and has great standing in the organization.  With Youk at first, however, there isn’t much room for him anytime soon.  Boston was down 4-1 going into the 7th but were able to scrap out a run in the 7th and then in the 8th off of Putz.

Jed Lowrie hit the first grand slam in Citi Field history in Saturday’s game, continuing his stellar spring which has him hitting .343 and playing great defense.  There is excitement as the Red Sox think they may have finally found their long term short stop.

Manager Terry Francona commented that the park was beautiful and spoke with Omay Minaya and Fred Wilpon about the stadium.  JD Drew who has spent time playing at Shea from his NL days said that the new park blows it out of the water.

The fans aren’t the only ones getting improvements; Mike Lowell was excited about the personal cage and weight room.

Hopefully Boston will have plenty of luck in the other new NY park.

Luis Castillo Inspires Cautious Optimism

Last year, the Mets went into camp with the second base position secure. Luis Castillo was going to be the man. He was going to anchor the position that had been giving us fits since Robbie Alomar.

2008 turned out not to be Luis Castillo’s year. He played the whole season with pain in his knees and missed considerable time to the disabled list.

Despite every Mets fan worth their salt hoping that a different name would start at second in 2009, Luis Castillo is back. And I, for one, feel like that’s a good thing. Castillo’s knees are healthy, he’s lost a little weight, and his bat seems a little quicker this spring. I have been warmly optimistic that Luis Castillo will have a near career year in ‘09. And so far the spring numbers are proving that:

In 25 AB, he’s got a line of .320/.500/.520 with 8 Runs scored, 8 hits (including 3 doubles and a triple).

Mind you, 25 ABs is an awfully small sample and a lot of those at bats could have come against inferior pitching - that’s why this post is title “Cautious” optimism. But all the same, anything that helps Castillo’s confidence and the New York fans confidence in him will greatly help him and the Mets down the line.

Will he make a liar of my by the All-Star Break? Maybe, but right now I’m feeling pretty okay - even Good - about Luis Castillo starting at second base for my New York Mets.

Sidenote: My new favorite player Daniel Murphy and his possible left field buddy Nick Evans have been quietly tearing up the Grapefruit league (.366/.426/.488 and .325/.400/.600 respectively in about 40 AB). There’s little question that these two can hit. It’s just an issue of consistency at the Major League level.

Sox Lock up Lester

The Red Sox made a great move this week signing Jon Lester to a 5 year 30 million dollar extension. Lester is emerging as one of baseball’s premiere left handed starters and this move further cements the Red Sox as serious contenders for years to come.

Lester’s signing is just the latest in a series of young talent being locked up by Boston, including Pedroia, Youkilus and Papelbon. Add to that the long term contracts of Dice K, Beckett, and Drew, the farm system that seems to produce major league ready talent on a yearly basis, and the Red Sox clearly have a plan for the future.

I predict that in a year or two this deal will be regarded as an absolute steal for the Red Sox.

Introduction to the 2009 Red Sox

After much waiting the Red Sox blog is finally up and running!

Since the season has yet to begin I thought it’d be best to start with some predictions.  I will take a look at five positive predictions heading into the season as well as five concerns I have for this team.  Future blogs will be shorter generally, but as this is the debut there is a lot to cover.

At the end I will make a bold prediction and an overall prediction for the 2009 Boston Red Sox season.

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Mets should sign Pedro. How do you like them Apples?

Now that Manny Ramirez has shocked the world and signed with the Dodgers (as if there was any other serious competition) we can finally move on with Spring Training and follow the progress of our most beloved teams. Some of you may be happy with the moves your franchise made throughout the offseason,  many of you may not. The New York Yankees obviously made the biggest splash, spending what seemed to be federal bailout type money on C.C Sabathia, A.J Burnett, and Mark Texiera. The New York Mets also took care of some needs that needed attention by establishing what may arguably be the best back end of any bullpen in baseball with the signing of K-Rod and the acquisition of Putz. But as I look at the depth chart of the New York Mets I can’t help but think that more could of been done. That although the reason for the 2008 collapse stemmed primarily from the bullpen, or lack thereof, there are still some question marks, and the biggest question mark, I believe,  is in the starting rotation. Here is a rundown of the projected starting rotation for the 2009 New York Mets.

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Reasons for Yankee Fans to Laugh, and Cry

As we whiff the freshly cut grass of George Steinbrenner Field, the best named and most  grandiose of all the Spring Training Complexes from Tampa to Tuscon, Yankee fans have much to be happy about. Despite a sub-par end to the season that saw the club miss the playoffs for the first time since I was learning algebra in the 6th Grade, the Yankees have re-tooled and spend enough money to bail out the economy of Costa Rica on AJ Burnett, CC Sabathia and Mark Texiera. This should effectively shore up two major problems that the club had last year- namely run production and starting pitching, and, unless you’re hallucinating vividly, the Yankees are certainly a bona fide title contender any way you slice it given these moves.
 
But not so fast.
 
These aren’t the Paul O’Neill/ Bernie Williams Yankees that were able to gel as a cohesive unit no matter who, or what befell them (see Wells, David). Not in the least. If the Yankees are to win this year, they need to learn to be selfless and help each other, not act as the most expensive, ego-driven assemblage of baseball talent in the Universe. If there is not a serious alteration in the way the Yankee clubhouse is run, I am still worried about the team I have spent an inordinate of time watching, analyzing and defending for my entire adult life.
 
It is for this reason that I like what Joe Girardi is doing with his centerfield situation, and to a less extent, with his bullpen. With the rest of the lineup pretty much established, and Jasper’s favorite ballplayer Phil the Phranchise destined to at least begin the season in AAA, a bona fide position battle might, at the very least serve to invigorate.
 
In one corner, you have Melky Cabrera, who, despite flashes of brilliance, has not been able to hold onto the job since the reigns were handed to him last season. Melky has shown a penchant for untimely strikeouts and poor plate discipline combined with the occasional defensive gaffe that got him demoted last season. Too much palling around with fellow slacker Bobby Cano might have something to do with that.
 
In the other, you have Brett Gardner, who reminds you of Rey Ordonez without the jaw-dropping defensive acumen. In 1923, Gardner would have been a great asset to any team- a classic slap and dash hitter who plays good defense and is tough on the basepaths. In the 2009 Al East, I’m not too sure. This kid has one thing on his side- he hustles like there is no tomorrow. That’s something you can’t teach, not matter how hard you try.
 
But at the very least, these two guys duking it out will hopefully serve to remind us all of the spirit of friendly competition that makes baseball great. On a team of highly compensated megastars, this can sometimes seem lost. Maybe if everyone can channel some of their inner Brett Gardner, I would feel a little better about the 2009 Yankees.

Joba - A Bullpen Liability?

JOBA GAME LOG FROM LAST YEAR (AS A STARTER)

START #	Date	Opponent	IP	ER	Total Pitches	Pitches/Inning	Pitches Per 9	IP / 100P	IP / 110P
1	6/3/2008	Blue Jays	2.1IP	1ER	62	26.5
2	6/8/2008	Royals	4.1IP	2ER	78	18.0
3	6/13/2008	Astros	6.0IP	1ER	88	14.7
4	6/19/2008	Padres	5.2IP	1ER	100	17.6
5	6/25/2008	Pirates	6.2IP	0ER	114	17.1
6	7/1/2008	Texas	4.0IP	2ER	91	22.8
7	7/6/2008	Red Sox	6.0IP	3ER	101	16.8
8	7/11/2008	Blue Jays	6.2IP	3ER	108	16.2
9	7/19/2008	A’s	6.0IP	1ER	96	16.0
10	7/25/2008	Red Sox	7.0IP	0ER	103	14.7
11	7/30/2008	Orioles	6.0IP	1ER	98	16.3
12	8/4/2008	Texas	4.2IP	5ER	93	22.1
TOTALS	INCLUDES	GAME 1 & 12	5.1IP			17.3	156	5.2IP	6.1IP
TOTALS	EXCLUDES	GAME 1 & 12	6.0IP			16.5	148	6.1IP	6.2IP

I don’t really count starts #1 or #12 because Joba was on a serious pitch count (and got injured game 12 and was obviously pitching hurt) but whatever - you can if you want - I have included stats for both.

This game log proves that Joba is consistant. Here is the stat breakdown. With the pitch count games, and the injury game Joba still averaged 5.1 innings per start. If you take away those two games (and really I could take away more on this argument because he really didn’t get a decent pitch count till game 4) Joba averages 6.0 innings per game, which is pretty economical for this stage in a power pitchers career. With time, Joba should learn how to decrease his walk totals, and learn how to be more efficient in getting batters out, but his existing numbers show that he is currently economical in getting through innings with relatively few pitches.

Another way to look at this is in terms of quality starts. According to this game log Joba had 7 quality starts in 12 opportunities (58%). Again, three starts can be taken off the bottom end of this due to pitch count limits from being translated from the bullpen to the starter roll (and the injury game), which would give him 7 quality starts in 9 opportunities (78%).

Now if we take these numbers and translate them to ask the question - based on Joba’s average pitch count how deep would Joba go in a ball game with a 100 or a 110 pitch limit? If you look at the above chart, you can see that this pitch average brings Joba to 6+ innings pitched in most situations.

Bottom line, the Yankees want Joba for 200 innings a year rather than 70. He may only be with 10 wins out of the rotation this year - but not everything is about this year. Next year his innings pitched count can rise if he meets 170 this year, then he will rise to 200 next year.

Love it or hate it, this is the new breed of baseball. All young talent will be brought up and broken into the major leagues this way. If a starter can go six innings consistently - that should take away any questions about him being a consistent bullpen liability because any team would be jumping through hoops to find a 5^th starter to deliver a 6 inning performance to the tune of an ERA under 3.

Depth Chart Analysis – Cleveland Indians

When analyzing the roster for the current Cleveland Indians team – one may have to consider the high expectations and disappointment of the 2008 team. The American League Central is not a particularly strong division, with no clear cut favorite to take the division. But is it possible for one to look toward the 2007 Central Division Champions to take on this crown?

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