Open Letter to Marlins Lovers (Streak Streak Streak)

To everyone who saw the first 11 games of the season and wanted to hand the Marlins the NL East crown,

Watch them now.

The pitching has cooled and Hanley is hurting. They are a completed different team.

The Mets have been fairly awful so far this season and they are controlling their current series against the Marlins so far.

Baseball is all about who’s hot. If you can get hot and stay hot longer than everyone else, you can take everything. The teams that gut it out and win without being hot, those are the special teams. Those are the teams to watch. Last year, the Rays were that team, this year, so far for my money, it’s the Blue Jays and Red Sox.

NL West Starting Pitching Analysis

Dodgers	Diamondbacks	Giants	Rockies	Padres
Kuroda  B+	Webb   A+	Lincecum  A+	Francis  A-	Peavy  A
Kershaw  A	Haren  A+	Cain  A-	Jimenez  B+	Young  B+
Billingsley  B+	Scherzer  B	Big Unit  B+	Cook  A-	Correia  C+
Wolf  B	Davis  B	Sanchez  B	De La Rosa  ?	Seung Baek B-/?
Vargas?	Garland B	Zito  B	Marquis  C	?
Overall     B+	Overall        B+	Overall   B+	Overall    B	Overall    B-

The NL West is a division I see as easily up for grabs and has been the last couple years. If one of these teams catches fire in August and September, they’ll take the division. That’s what happened last year (Dodgers) and the year before (Rockies).

Predictions: The DBacks have the best rotation and would seem to me like the most likely to win it. BUT, the Dodgers have Manny and a pretty solid rotation too. In the end, I think the DBacks youth will work against them and the Dodgers take the division again. But with all these teams this close, it could go to anyone.

Dodgers: Kershaw needs to step it up for the Dodgers big time this season. Since he has the best stuff, everyone has named him their defacto “Ace”, but he’s still a kid. He needs to grow into his Ace shoes and become the force in the West everyone hopes he will be.  I still remember the first time I saw his curve on YouTube. It made my heart skip a beat. I thought, that must be what it was like to see Koufax. Those are awfully big shoes to fill. Billingsley is growing into his #3 role very well. Kuroda has been solid - although currently he’s hurt. Wolf will give you starts.  I think Pedro would have looked really good in that 5^th spot for them, but they couldn’t make it happen.

DBacks: Without a doubt the best rotation in this division for my money. Webb has struggled and is on the DL, but he should bounce back. Danny Haren is consistently brilliant. Max Scherzer is looking like he’ll be every bit as good as AZ hoped. Doug Davis has quietly moved from #2 to #4 and is still winning games. He’s a solid pitcher. Jon Garland has been hot and cold for the DBacks so far, but he’ll be better than average when the season’s done.

Giants: I know everyone like the Giants rotation because everyone keeps telling me that they like the Giants rotation. Lincecum is a freak. Matt Cain is getting better every start. Randy Johnson has looked positively stellar so far. But in the end, I think this Giants offense is going to be their downfall. I don’t think that they’re pitching is good enough to win games 1-0, 2-1 every night. They need to be able to win games 5-3, 6-5, 7-4 and I don’t think that the offense is good enough to put 5 runs on the board with any consistency.

Rockies: When Jeff Francis returns from the DL, I think Colorado could be a very dangerous team. The offense is still largely intact and they can always score runs. The starting pitching is actually pretty good at the front of the rotation. It’s once you get past Jimenez that I think you’ll start to see teams beating up on the Rockies. If the Rockies take this division, it won’t be on the strength of the starters.

Padres: The Pads have started the season red hot. They have been winning games and they’re looking good. Peavy might stay past the deadline, who knows. Chris Young is pitching well so far. But they Pads have some question marks in that starting rotation.  If I was a manager, I wouldn’t want to count on Walter Silva every fifth day. Or Kevin Correia or Shawn Hill. Shawn Hill was cut from the Nationals for Chrissakes. I know they’re hot now and winning games, but I wouldn’t count on them being at the top past May.

Buchholz Growing and Learning

Clay Buchholz is coming off an impressive spring and feels that he’s made major strides since last year in which he spent most of the year in the minors with an above six ERA after having an above 9 ERA in the majors.

In a recent interview he used the analogy of a ball of yarn to describe his season; When one thing would go wrong someone would pull at that ball and he would completely unravel.  Part of the reason for this is that from little league all through the minors, and even his first few starts with the Sox, including a no hitter in his second start, Clay had never expereinced any kind of adversity in his game.  He’s excelled in all levels of play, never really being challenged.  So when one thing would go wrong he wasn’t sure how to handle it and as a result would come apart.

The spring has been differnt for Buchholz.  A great example: with a man on first an errant pick off attempt brought him to third, then eventually home when the same thing happened again.  Last year this would’ve completely taken him off his game, however, he recovered quickly and struck out the next two batters and didn’t allow another run.

Expect Clay to be much better than last year.

Luis Castillo Inspires Cautious Optimism

Last year, the Mets went into camp with the second base position secure. Luis Castillo was going to be the man. He was going to anchor the position that had been giving us fits since Robbie Alomar.

2008 turned out not to be Luis Castillo’s year. He played the whole season with pain in his knees and missed considerable time to the disabled list.

Despite every Mets fan worth their salt hoping that a different name would start at second in 2009, Luis Castillo is back. And I, for one, feel like that’s a good thing. Castillo’s knees are healthy, he’s lost a little weight, and his bat seems a little quicker this spring. I have been warmly optimistic that Luis Castillo will have a near career year in ‘09. And so far the spring numbers are proving that:

In 25 AB, he’s got a line of .320/.500/.520 with 8 Runs scored, 8 hits (including 3 doubles and a triple).

Mind you, 25 ABs is an awfully small sample and a lot of those at bats could have come against inferior pitching - that’s why this post is title “Cautious” optimism. But all the same, anything that helps Castillo’s confidence and the New York fans confidence in him will greatly help him and the Mets down the line.

Will he make a liar of my by the All-Star Break? Maybe, but right now I’m feeling pretty okay - even Good - about Luis Castillo starting at second base for my New York Mets.

Sidenote: My new favorite player Daniel Murphy and his possible left field buddy Nick Evans have been quietly tearing up the Grapefruit league (.366/.426/.488 and .325/.400/.600 respectively in about 40 AB). There’s little question that these two can hit. It’s just an issue of consistency at the Major League level.

2009 Predictions

Division Winners	TEAM	RECORD
AL EAST	Yankees	98-64
AL CENTRAL	Twins	91-71
AL WEST	Angels	93-69
AL WILD CARD	Rays	92-70
NL EAST	Phillies	95-67
NL CENTRAL	Cubs	96-66
NL WEST	Diamondbacks	88-72
NL WILD CARD	Mets	89-73
Divisional Series 2009
AL Divisional Series	Yankees over Twins in 4
AL Divisional Series	Rays over Angels in 5
NL Divisional Series	Cubs over Mets in 4
NL Divisional Series	Phillies over DBacks in 5
League Championship Series 2009
AL Championship Series	Yankees over Rays in 7
NL Championship Series	Phillies over Cubs in 5
World Series 2009
World Series	Yankees over Phillies in 6
League Awards
AL Cy Young	Francisco Liriano	18-6 2.89
NL Cy Young	Johan Santana	22-3 2.39
AL MVP	Josh Hamilton	.304 42 145
NL MVP	Ryan Braun	.315 46 126
AL Manager of the Year	Ron Washington - Rangers
NL Manager of the Year	Dusty Baker - Reds

Before you read any further, I want you to know that I 100% believe that great pitching wins ball games. My season predictions are directly correlated with the effectiveness of their staff. With that being said… read on.

The Yankees here are a no brainer, with or without Alex Rodriguez. The Yankees are a team that is based around great pitching, the staff that the Yankee brass assembled was built to keep the opponent off the score boards so that the potent offense does not have to outscore the opposition. With that being said, the Yankee offense is also no joke, that lineup could drive in a record amount of runs. If it weren’t for the fact that they were playing in the AL East, I would be giving them around 114 wins for the season.

The Rays remain a great team, that pitching staff is very young and potent. A rotation that may be considered Top 5 in all of baseball. The offense is where this team is still lacking, the addition of Pat Burrell helps, but I still see this lineup struggling scoring runs, especially considering the great pitching in the AL East.

The Red Sox are a wild card that can go either way for me. IF the team is healthy they are capable of being even better than the Yankees, but that is a very big if. David Ortiz and Mike Lowell are both coming off major injuries, if they do not come back and play like the Ortiz and Lowell this team does not have a shot at contending in this division. Dustin Pedrioa is a great ball player, but he is not capable of carrying a lineup like Ortiz does. The pitching staff brings about more questions regarding health. Josh Beckett’s usual season involves at least one trip to the disabled list, what makes this season any different? Considering Dice-K’s walk rate, I firmly believe that he pitched well above his head last year, if there is one thing that I have learned being a baseball fan for 20 years, it is that walks will eventually hurt you badly.

The Minnesota Twins are my pick to win the central because their pitching can become league elite in 2009. As you can see from my AL Cy Young prediction (some may say is pretty far out there) I think that Francisco Liriano can return in 2009 to become that dominant starter that we saw in 2006 when he first arrived in the majors, making some of baseballs best hitters look like little leaguers. Slowey, Baker, Blackburn and Perkins all proved to be serviceable major league starters last season and when you consider their age, they should only improve on their 2008 season.

Many people think that the Angels will fall off the map this season. I have seen many professionals predict them to finish below the A’s (I’m sorry still not an impressive ball club in my opinion) in 2009. The Angels were a great team last season BEFORE they acquired Mark Teixeira from the Braves. Teixeira was just an element that pushed them from great to breathtaking. The Angels are built around a very high end pitching staff that most GMs would sell their souls for. Lackey is a very nice option at #1, followed by Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana, two young starters who broke out in a very big way last season.

The Cubs already have one of the best pitching staffs in the game, and part of my prediction has Jake Peavy landing in Chicago by the trade deadline. If that does NOT happen, you can take 5-6 wins off their total. Even outside of a possible Peavy deal this team is very well built. The offense is a great combination of great contact hitters, speed, and power. The only hole in this lineup is at second base, but with a lineup as great as this, one hole is acceptable. However the staff is good, not great. Zambrano will be Zambrano, a very reliable high end starter, that will have a better year than last season. I believe that Dempster and Lilly pitched over their heads last year and there is no guarantee that Rich Harden can make another 25 starts this season.

The Phillies have a very well rounded offense that combines speed and power. Utley, Howard, and Ibanez in the middle of any lineup is something that will bring opposing pitchers to their knees. Pitching wise, it is always nice having your ace be a lefty, and Cole Hamels has developed into a great front of the rotation option. Brett Meyers, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton fill out the rest of a very well rounded and reliable rotation. Reminder, this is a contract year for Brett Meyers, expect big things for a big pay day!

Arizona has one of the best 1-2 punches in all of baseball with Webb and Haren, with on offense that is very young and on the rise. I did pick this club last season to do great things. I even drafted Brandon Lyon as an ‘under the radar guy’ in several of my leagues because I was that confident in this team’s ability to win games. I was wrong last year, but it’s all just a waiting game. The talent is definitely there, the rotation already is. If the lineup starts hitting.. I’m sorry LA, this is the team to beat.

Which finally brings me to the New York Mets. Hopefully all of you were able to figure out that I am a Yankee fan considering my Yankee analysis and World Series prediction, biased, yes.. unreasonable.. no. But the fact that I am a Yankee fan has never made me anti-met, when in reality, the Mets are my second favorite team. (though several of my close friends may disagree due to my attitude about their moves). I do not believe that the moves that this team has made has put them over the top or made them a clear cut playoff favorite. Honestly I see the Reds, Milwaukee, and Florida giving the Mets a serious run for their money in that Wild Card hunt. Year after year, the leagues greatest half assed general manager, Omar Minaya, fixes part of the problem, but ignores all the rest of the issues, this offseason has been no different for the league’s most overrated GM. When looking back and thinking about last season’s epic collapse, it doesn’t take Art Howe to tell you that the bullpen was to blame. Rather than retooling the bullpen with good options from top to bottom, Minaya makes the backend top heavy and pays no attention to long and middle relief. Having two great closers in the back end is great, but if long to middle relief can’t get them the ball, it does no good. So now, the Mets are going to blow games in the 6th rather than the 8th. The rotation also need to have another starter added. Signing Oliver Perez is great, but low balling Derek Lowe was the biggest mistake of this teams off season. Now, the same inconsistent staff as last year returns. However, I think that the Mets offense will bail them out of any pitching problems this team could run into. I believe that a great leadoff hitter could be the most valuable part of any offense because of everything that hitter contributes. Jose Reyes is one of the league’s elite leadoff hitters and can be a major catalyst for this offense. David Wright is going to have another year under his belt and be another year better. I do not see another epic collapse at the end of this season (a September slump at this point, is inevitable) I think that they will make the playoffs, but the pitching problems will come through. One thing that I think that the Mets will (and must consider) is the addition of Ben Sheets at the All Star Break. Sheets may be the one to bring stability and consistency to this staff and team.

Bold Predictions for the 2009 Season

Last year at this time, my buddy Mike and I each made predictions for the 2008 season - as so many of us do. But I made my predictions with a little bit of a twist. I got as specific as possible. Let me show you:

2008 MLB Predictions:

AL
East - Boston, 98-64
Central - Tigers, 102-60
West - Angels, 92-70
Wild Card - Cleveland, just edging out the Yankees in the last week of the season

NL
East - Mets, 96-66
Central - Cubs, 90-72
West - Diamondbacks, 102-60
Wild Card - Brewers, 89-73

I had the Mets over the DBacks in the NL Championship and eventually beating the Tigers in 7 (who beat out Boston).

Obviously, these predictions were quite wrong. The DBacks and Tigers came no where near winning their divisions let alone 100 games. The Mets - MY Mets - folded like a cheap suit for the second September in a row. And Cleveland’s season was over when Travis Hafner went down. But I was kinda close on some of these: Milwaukee did win the Wild Card with 90 wins. I successfully picked 4 of 8 playoff teams.

So this season, I’d like to try it again.

2009 MLB Predictions

AL
East - Boston, 94-68
Central - Minnesota, 88-74
West - Angels, 98-64
Wild Card - Tampa Bay, 92-70

NL
East - Phillies, 95-67
Central - Cubs, 97-65
West - Dodgers, 90-72
Wild Card - Mets, 94-68

I think the Yankees win 90 games, but the loss of ARod for the first 6 weeks of the season (I know that’s longer than expected, but he’s not going to come right back and be effective) is too much for the Yanks to overcome the Rays. I think Oakland gives Anaheim a run for its money in the West. I see the Mets having a minor collapse in September (history HAS taught me something), but I think this year they pull it together enough to hold onto the Wild Card. With that offense, I don’t see the Giants as a legitimate contender - great young pitching will only get you so far.

For the postseason, I see the Phillies over the Dodgers (Philly’s rotation is too good) and the Cubs over the Mets (as a Met fan I can tell you, pessimism is our stock and trade). The Sawx beat up on Minnesota and Anaheim takes out the Rays. For the series, I see the Phillies missing out on the repeat to an Anaheim team that has caught fire since late September.

I see Evan Longoria and Vlad getting serious votes for MVP, but in the end it goes to ARod because he almost single-handedly turns the Yankees season around when he returns, finishing with a line of .314, 45 HR, 132 RBI. HGH may or may not be involved in his return.

The NL MVP will be Jose Reyes. Why you ask? Because this year when his team starts dropping games in September, he will step up his game and grab his team kicking and screaming into the playoffs.

Cy Young Awards go to Brandon Webb (22-8, 2.48 ERA, career best 206 K’s) and John Lackey (who’s inflated ERA - 3.41 - belies the fact that he’s the only 20 game winner in the AL).

The majority of my predictions went horribly wrong last year. Will this year’s crop fair any better? Who knows. That is why, as the wise Chris Berman always says, they play the games.

Please leave comments with your own predictions.

Oh, and as a special BONUS PREDICTION: Phil Hughes starts 20 games for the Yankees, who miss AJ Burnett and Wang for long periods. He finishes with a respectable line of 10-7, 125 K’s and an ERA of 4.35.

2K Sports MLB 2K9 vs. MLB The Show 09

I’m an XBox 360 guy. When I went to buy a new system 2 years ago, there were no decent games for the PS3 and it was a good $150 more expensive than the 360. Since then, I’ve wished at times that I bought the PS3 (my XBox has proven “glitchy”), but overall I’m satisfied with my 360.

Every year I go out and buy the latest baseball game. For us XBoxers, its 2K Sports MLB 2K9 (with Tim Lincecum on the cover instead of last year’s Jose Reyes version). I’ve been playing this game for about a week now (not as much as I could be, but enough that my thumbs are sore) and I like this year’s version a lot better than last years.

The old announcing duo was the always dull Jon Miller and his semi-retarded cohort, Joe Morgan. Listening to these two in video game form was even more painful than listening to them during a game. Can someone explain to me why Jon Miller insisted that his name is ru-BEN Sierra when no one else in the world - include Mr. Sierra - hits the Ben instead of the Ru? But I digress.

This year’s duo is Gary Thorn and Steve Phillips. Gone are the idiotic catch phrases of Joe Morgan - trying to share information like an autistic John Madden. Now we get to hear the nasally refrains of Mr. Thorn while Steve Phillips sounds both rushed and disinterested. Its a wonderful combination. But lightyears better than Miller/Morgan, so I’m happy.

The actual game play is totally different. My first game saw Johan Santana get lit up by the Reds because I couldn’t find the strike zone (Edwin Encarnacion hit a grand slam that probably hasn’t landed in video game land yet). Now instead of guessing whether I’ve held the button too long and my easy throw from second will wind up in the seats, there’s a clever little meter that tells me how hard the throw will be. The drawback: the meter doesn’t kick on before the player has the ball. There’s no pre-loading, so a bang-bang play where you need to get the ball out of your glove sometimes causing no throw and a lot of yelling from the player.

During my first game with the new version, I had no less than 4 Come on!’s, 3 You Gotta Be Kiddin’ Me’s, and 3 F*ckin’ Bullsh*t game!’s. All in all, pretty good for a new release. Those numbers significantly decreased in the second game (where John Maine and solid bullpen beat the Reds 8-4). And I think this is going to become one of my favorite games ever. It really is a quality game where its hard to be a lazy cheat.

I give it a 3.5 out of 5 possible points.

But I will always wonder, what if I had bought the PS3 and was currently playing MLB The Show 09? What would I think of it? Hopefully we’ve got some industrious PS3 fans who can compare my new baseball game to theirs… HINT HINT

Dominican Republic loses to Netherlands - TWICE?!?

The baseball world is abuzz today with news of the over-achieving Netherlands team defeating the Goliath of the WBC, the Dominican Republic to eliminate them from the tourney. But no one seems to be drawing attention to the fact that it was the Netherlands who dealt the DR BOTH of their losses, single-handedly eliminating them.

The NETHERLANDS, who’s only professional ballplayer is the overweight MLB castoff Sidney Ponson - a man I not-so-lovingly refer to as “Dough Boy” - beat what could be one of the best international baseball teams ever fielded.

The Dominican team featured some of baseball biggest names: Jose Reyes, David Ortiz, Jose Guillen, Robinson Cano, Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Tejada, Moises Alou, Willy Aybar, etc. lost TWO GAMES to Dough Boy Sidney Ponson and a bunch of Dutch kids who don’t know baseball from football.

That’s about as likely as the proverbial monkey that will fly out of my butt or pennies falling from the skies. It’s like hitting the lotto two days in a row. It’s like David felling Goliath, then picking him up, dusting him off, and dropping him again.

Anything is possible in life, my friends. Dream big, because if the Netherlands can beat the DR in baseball, TWICE, then anything can happen.

Sox Lock up Lester

The Red Sox made a great move this week signing Jon Lester to a 5 year 30 million dollar extension. Lester is emerging as one of baseball’s premiere left handed starters and this move further cements the Red Sox as serious contenders for years to come.

Lester’s signing is just the latest in a series of young talent being locked up by Boston, including Pedroia, Youkilus and Papelbon. Add to that the long term contracts of Dice K, Beckett, and Drew, the farm system that seems to produce major league ready talent on a yearly basis, and the Red Sox clearly have a plan for the future.

I predict that in a year or two this deal will be regarded as an absolute steal for the Red Sox.

A-Rod’s Newest Dilemma

With the announcement of yesterday’s sobering news that Alex Rodriguez will be missing all of April and possibly most of May, Yankee management must decide how this problem will be addressed. Options from within include Cody Ransom and Angel Berroa. Considering that these two options have combined for a total of 8 major league games at third base, I do not see this as a viable option.

Many have also noticed that Mark Teixeira came up with the Texas Rangers in 2003 as a third base prospect. So a possible solution would have the Yankees moving Teixiera to third base. Not so fast. Teixiera has played only 15 games in his career at third base, with 7 errors in those games. When you move a player from their natural position to a new position, you are creating a defensive liability at that position. On top of that, you have to find a replacement for a gold glover at the first position. With this move – two places on the field have decreased defense rather than one.

THE SOLUTION: Send Melky Cabrera and Ian Kennedy to the Dodgers for Juan Pierre and Blake DeWitt

The signing of Manny Ramirez has also pushed Juan Pierre to a bench roll. Pierre, also having served in the backup role for the majority of last year has asked the Dodgers for a trade and his agent has been given permission to find a new team for his client. It will also be difficult to find a new home for Pierre because he is owed: 10M in 2009, 10M in 2010, and 8.5M in 2011 a total of 28.5 MILLION DOLLARS. The Dodgers have a very young staff that have very big question marks in the back end of the rotation with fifth starter, Jason Schmidt, who’s health problems have plagued him the last two seasons, and another question in Randy Wolf, who has not thrown 200 innings since 2003. Ian Kennedy could be the guy to step in and start every 5^th day if Schmidt or Wolf get bitten by the injury bug again. Melky Cabrera could give the Dodgers a solid backup option for all outfield stops, and a decent pinch hitter/runner for critical late inning situations. This moves gives the Yankees a third base option that will not complain about playing time when A-Rods returns, and a utility option to give all of the infielders a day off once in a while. Juan Pierre (though his high salary and lousy defense are reason to question bringing him to the Bronx) would give the Yankees an everyday center fielder, who can provide great speed to a power heavy lineup. Pierre’s speed around the base paths would provide an instant threat to opposing pitchers, thus resulting in a lot of fastballs for any Yankee at the plate while Pierre is on base.

Other Possibilities:

Garrett Atkins: The Rockies have made it known that they are trying to move Atkins and his $7.05 million salary. Currently the Rockies do not have a place for 2^nd/3^rd basemen Ian Stewart, who turned the heads of many with his excellent play at the end of last season. Atkins ability to hit outside of Coors Field would defiantly be in question, especially after a down year last season. I’m not sure what the Rockies would want in return for Atkins, but he is definitely a viable option at 3^rd for the Yankees.

Adrian Beltre: A free agent after the 2009 season, and making $12 million for a team expected to do nothing. This one could be a pure salary dump, or yield a small return for the Mariners.

Chone Figgins: The Angels have the highly touted power hitting Brandon Wood well along his way. Figgins is set to become a free agent after next season and the Angels may be looking to get a return on him while they still can. The Yankees may be able to offer them Nick Swisher and a prospect or two for Figgins who would provide excellent speed to the lineup.

Dallas McPherson: Maybe its time to give the former megaprospect another shot. Second to Jorge Cantu at third base for the Marlins, McPherson’s great defense and offensive potential may be a great ‘lighting in a bottle’ type move for the Yankees.

Next Page »